亚博足球分析印度的循环经济：长期繁荣的重新思考增长

Having experienced sustained and rapid growth over the past two decades, India is facing rapid urbanisation and industrialisation, with the associated negative externalities that this entails. Yet this scenario is not inevitable, as the country can preempt linear lock-ins. With its young population and emerging manufacturing sector, the country can make systemic choices that would put it on a trajectory towards positive, regenerative, and value creating development.

本报告由Ellen Macarthur基亚博ag亚博体彩买球苹果版意甲赞助商金会的支持得到了ClimateWorks和贸发会议作为知识合作伙伴，重点关注印度经济和社会的三个领域：城市和建筑，粮食和农业，以及流动性和车辆制造。它表明，在2050年，循环经济轨亚博足球分析迹可以带来印度年度富有年份（6240亿美元）的年度效益，并在减少负面的外部性。例如，温室气体排放将与目前的开发路径相比，2050年的44％较低。

本报告于2016年12月5日首次发布。

India is experiencing unprecedented economic dynamism

塑造未来

Today, India stands at the threshold of profound choices, and can look beyond the linear 'take, make and dispose' model. With its young population and emerging manufacturing sector, the country can make systemic choices that would put it on a trajectory towards positive, regenerative, and value creating development. Implementing the circular economy, one that is restorative and regenerative by design, could make more effective use of materials and energy in a digitally enabled model of development.

The benefits of a circular economy in India

By embarking on a circular economy transformation, India could create economic, environmental and social value for its businesses and population. The benefits could include:

• ₹40lakh克鲁尔（62.4亿美元）年度价值在2050年创建，占印度当前GDP的30％

• 44% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2050 compared to the current development path

• Profit opportunities and material cost savings for businesses

• 减少交通拥堵和空气污染

• Reinforcement of India’s position as a hub for innovation and technology

• 较低使用原料材料，水和人造肥料

• 采取即将推出的数字革命

• Increased household disposable income through lower costs for products and services

印度的竞争优势

High-growth markets like India could move directly to a more effective system and avoid getting locked into linear models and infrastructure, as is the case in mature markets. The findings are relevant not only to India, but also to other emerging economies.

Where could the circular economy have most impact?

3焦点区域：城市与建筑，粮食和农业，流动和车辆制造

这三个焦点领域已被确定为占平均家庭花费的三分之二以上，并具有最高的预期增长率。他们构成了最大的就业来源，也是大多数资源消耗和负面的外部性。

Cities and construction

• 60% of India’s population will live in urban areas by 2050 – up from about 30% today

• 70% of buildings that will exist in India in 2030 are yet to be constructed

想象

可居住的城市，建筑物和基础设施适合印度扩大人口。

今天制造的选择将决定印度的长期发展，印度可以帮助满足其不断增长的人口的需求，同时避免被锁定到资源无效的建筑物和基础设施中。将循环经济原则应用亚博足球分析于发展这一大量基础设施和建筑物，与目前的开发道路相比，2050年，与当前的发展道路相比，2050年的年好益处₹4.9万亿卢比（760亿美元）。

Food and agriculture

• 50% of the working age population is employed in agriculture

• 61％的土地用于农业

想象

一种再生，恢复性农业系统，将现代技术与传统的再生实践相结合，以满足印度日益增长的粮食需求。

Growing food demand and environmental challenges associated with climate change, land degradation, and biodiversity loss are increasing pressure on the system. Applying circular economy principles to the development of the Indian food system could create annual benefits of ₹3.9 lakh crore (US$ 61 billion) in 2050; reduce GHG emissions, water usage, and environmental degradation; and play a vital role in securing the long-term food supply.

Mobility and vehicle manufacturing

• 目前2%的人口拥有一辆汽车

• x3对个人移动的需求将在2030年到2030年

想象

Designing a convenient, multimodal transport system enabled by digital technology for less resource-intensive but very effective mobility.

Mobility is vital to economic growth as it gives people access to employment, goods, and services and affects business productivity. As India is building new infrastructure to meet its growing mobility needs, today’s choices will determine the mid- to long-term development of the mobility system. A circular economy development path for mobility and vehicle manufacturing could create annual benefits of ₹31 lakh crore (US$ 482 billion) in 2050, compared with the current development scenario. Applying circular economy principles could also create a highly innovative and effective mobility system, with reduced negative externalities.